gary9316
0x6a0b841b4948361c83444ba5ae288b8f146e35db
- Realised P&L
- $-12.69
- Volume
- $355.92
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $81.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? · No | 0.799 | 0.797 | $49.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.790 | $31.43 | +$0.40 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.68at 0.127Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.85at 0.330Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
- +$0.39at 0.961US forces in Venezuela by October 31?
- +$0.37at 0.730Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.18at 0.848TikTok sale announced by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 00:07 | Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election? | BUY | 0.78 | $31.03 |
| 09-24 14:24 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $10.00 |
| 09-24 14:11 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.7988496565 | $50.00 |
| 09-23 03:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $6.83 |
| 09-05 16:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.14 |
| 08-17 06:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 08:48 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9669991539 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 08:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.962999557 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:38 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:38 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:30 | Will Solana reach $240 in October? | BUY | 0.9839991577 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:28 | TikTok sale announced by October 31? | BUY | 0.8479999457 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 15:25 | Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 15:55 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.57 |