arnynotterminator
0x69fb127cd6f8a6d6481ab16c0703ec4b4ecb1e56
- Realised P&L
- $3.84
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $208.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat? · No | 0.957 | 0.956 | $57.21 | −$0.09 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat? · Yes | 0.967 | 0.958 | $52.66 | −$0.52 |
| Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? · No | 0.997 | 0.994 | $49.67 | −$0.17 |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No | 0.976 | 0.976 | $48.80 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.35at 0.957Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
- +$1.30at 0.974Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
- +$1.00at 0.963Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$0.88at 0.978Netanyahu out by July 31?
- +$0.80at 0.984Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-20 10:30 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9629999817 | $21.71 |