0x69f539CE4D837B0B0fE35CD749414D4575B68718-1761641344960
0x69f539ce4d837b0b0fe35cd749414d4575b68718
- Realised P&L
- $-225.38
- Volume
- $10.6k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $13.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.842 | $8.41 | +$0.32 |
| Will Reid Hamer-Jackson win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.260 | $5.20 | −$1.60 |
| Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.00 |
| Spurs vs. Heat · Heat | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.50 |
| Clippers vs. Grizzlies · Grizzlies | 0.309 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$43.26 |
| Pistons vs. Magic · Pistons | 0.574 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$453.65 |
| Thunder vs. Clippers · Clippers | 0.425 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$143.76 |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$154.00 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.72 |
| Rockets vs. Suns · Suns | 0.526 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$229.23 |
| Pacers vs. Bulls · Bulls | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.51 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pelicans · Pelicans | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$92.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$362.74at 0.695Raptors vs. Grizzlies
- +$242.13at 0.531Celtics vs. Hawks
- +$203.71at 0.539Suns vs. Magic
- +$191.06at 0.636Lakers vs. Thunder
- +$171.30at 0.605Hawks vs. Knicks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 06:37 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 08-25 09:25 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $9.10 |
| 07-25 07:52 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 07-23 09:30 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.91 |
| 06-22 10:26 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.30 |
| 06-22 09:55 | Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.20 |
| 06-22 09:54 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 05-26 06:45 | Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 05-26 06:43 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 04-18 11:12 | Hawks vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.68 | $148.73 |
| 04-08 09:22 | Thunder vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.31 | $102.52 |
| 04-07 10:40 | Rockets vs. Suns | BUY | 0.5 | $214.37 |
| 04-06 11:13 | Pistons vs. Magic | BUY | 0.61 | $476.58 |
| 04-03 09:29 | Raptors vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.88 | $524.20 |
| 04-02 10:18 | Lakers vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.75 | $197.99 |