MtPleasant
0x69ef36e0d158fdbb45dd48e3fc16a78201502528
- Realised P&L
- $-10.45
- Volume
- $19.0k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $208.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.597 | 0.935 | $110.79 | +$40.04 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.620 | 0.945 | $75.60 | +$26.00 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.884 | 0.972 | $14.57 | +$1.31 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.065 | $7.67 | −$12.39 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$120.40at 0.3892024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$92.20at 0.515Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
- +$79.99at 0.040[Single Market] Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$78.67at 0.500[Single Market] Will Donald J. Trump win the U.S. 2024 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$59.74at 0.231Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 02:07 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $20.06 |
| 03-14 12:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 14? | BUY | 0.98 | $48.99 |
| 03-13 15:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? | BUY | 0.979 | $48.94 |
| 03-13 13:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.90 |
| 03-13 13:07 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 13? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.76 |
| 03-12 20:00 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $18.50 |
| 03-12 19:37 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | SELL | 0.962 | $45.81 |
| 03-11 18:27 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 03-11 15:20 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | BUY | 0.7803347574 | $20.00 |
| 03-11 14:32 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-10 13:35 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 10? | BUY | 0.87 | $8.70 |
| 03-10 12:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.80 |
| 03-06 19:07 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? | SELL | 0.918 | $79.87 |
| 03-06 14:32 | Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $17.62 |
| 03-06 13:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? | BUY | 0.931 | $9.31 |