WillingMandible
0x69d7ed5071fe5125c5dbfcbad26b8acee3eb71e9
- Realised P&L
- $-71.87
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $9.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.018 | $8.79 | −$31.41 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.029 | $0.75 | −$2.94 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Starmer out in 2025? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.47at 0.200US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-09 15:11 | Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | BUY | 0.1887640419 | $40.00 |
| 03-09 15:08 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $73.45 |
| 01-07 01:15 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $29.98 |
| 01-07 00:55 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999719 | $3.69 |
| 12-20 00:20 | Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.20 |
| 09-17 14:09 | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0279999967 | $8.00 |
| 09-17 13:35 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 13:30 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.0789999915 | $8.00 |
| 02-16 22:41 | Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | BUY | 0.0415882742 | $20.00 |