0x69BadB484917B2bFc8eBecEdacE4fe02Ce6710ac-1781140089875
0x69badb484917b2bfc8ebecedace4fe02ce6710ac
- Realised P&L
- $-51.10
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 358
- Open portfolio
- $78.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded358
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.625 | $30.86 | −$9.14 |
| California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition · No | 0.580 | 0.775 | $30.16 | +$7.60 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.535 | $17.54 | −$2.46 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros · Minnesota Twins | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.03 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets · New York Mets | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.58 |
| New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox · New York Yankees | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.62 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.28 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers · Cleveland Guardians | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.81 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.23 |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.43 |
| Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.91 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners · Philadelphia Phillies | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.46 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.17 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics · Los Angeles Angels | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.37 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins · Minnesota Twins | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.26at 0.562Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$24.39at 0.189Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
- +$14.65at 0.410Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
- +$14.57at 0.582Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
- +$13.44at 0.472Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:05 | California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition | BUY | 0.5797212471 | $22.56 |
| 09-17 07:03 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.809999997 | $40.00 |
| 09-17 07:01 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999927 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 17:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.45 | $23.44 |
| 09-08 17:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $3.00 |
| 09-08 17:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999954 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 05:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | SELL | 0.21 | $5.07 |
| 09-08 05:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | SELL | 0.3888287228 | $6.61 |
| 09-08 05:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 05:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |