Croesus1
0x69b9a231e6d9e8a1be243e3db5174203a33f1284
- Realised P&L
- $-33.0k
- Volume
- $532.1k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? · No | 0.849 | 0.843 | $1.2k | −$8.39 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.645 | 0.626 | $1.1k | −$31.09 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.865 | $692.00 | +$4.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? · No | 0.670 | 0.555 | $443.99 | −$92.00 |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.792 | 0.855 | $342.00 | +$25.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.598 | 0.605 | $151.25 | +$1.75 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.7k |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.389 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.709Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$3.1kat 0.716Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
- +$2.1kat 0.688Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
- +$1.8kat 0.619Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$1.5kat 0.741Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 13:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | BUY | 0.66 | $264.00 |
| 10-13 12:15 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.615 | $113.06 |
| 10-13 07:23 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | BUY | 0.85 | $161.50 |
| 10-13 07:22 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.626 | $66.96 |
| 10-12 16:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $348.00 |
| 10-12 16:45 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.6 | $120.00 |
| 10-12 16:45 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-12 16:45 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.643 | $203.36 |
| 10-12 12:24 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.663 | $80.29 |
| 10-09 12:51 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.548 | $27.40 |
| 09-12 07:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $7.04 |
| 09-11 13:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.17 | $59.02 |
| 09-11 13:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.1k |
| 09-11 13:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3958261429 | $554.16 |
| 09-11 13:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1301818182 | $716.00 |