0x698aA64F0392F63C3D5AeAE03bb2309b2c0afe0D-1750686877678
0x698aa64f0392f63c3d5aeae03bb2309b2c0afe0d
- Realised P&L
- $5.4k
- Volume
- $348.1k
- Markets traded
- 252
- Open portfolio
- $425.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded252
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · No | 0.520 | 0.725 | $362.50 | +$102.50 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.025 | $50.80 | +$3.80 |
| Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.115 | $6.90 | −$10.50 |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.005 | $5.50 | +$0.50 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.943 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? · No | 0.384 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.644Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$1.8kat 0.490US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.485Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$1.1kat 0.720Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$998.54at 0.665Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 00:59 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.71 | $42.60 |
| 04-08 20:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $67.50 |
| 04-08 20:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $105.00 |
| 04-08 20:23 | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.3k |
| 04-08 20:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $11.25 |
| 04-05 04:28 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | BUY | 0.92 | $736.00 |
| 03-28 20:52 | Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 03-24 21:53 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.6k |
| 03-07 04:34 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | BUY | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 03-07 04:33 | Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.45 |
| 03-05 05:59 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $472.00 |
| 03-02 17:04 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $419.98 |
| 02-15 04:09 | LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.86 | $859.14 |
| 02-15 04:05 | Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | SELL | 0.004 | $3.60 |
| 02-15 04:05 | Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.34 |