0x698031Eb48a77639F9Ff646B723f476D12F24e9d-1720708318247
0x698031eb48a77639f9ff646b723f476d12f24e9d
- Realised P&L
- $-397.67
- Volume
- $26.6k
- Markets traded
- 149
- Open portfolio
- $71.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded149
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.255 | $51.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.064 | $12.70 | +$3.10 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.080 | $7.95 | −$10.05 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.26at 0.670Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$19.52at 0.908Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$17.51at 0.670Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
- +$16.80at 0.610Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
- +$11.80at 0.410Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 13:02 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.173 | $8.65 |
| 05-31 00:38 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $136.00 |
| 05-24 05:28 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 05-19 11:31 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.077 | $7.70 |
| 05-12 01:58 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 05-09 13:14 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 05-08 06:55 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.905 | $146.18 |
| 04-30 12:31 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.58 | $11.60 |
| 04-30 12:30 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.59 | $4.72 |
| 04-11 01:06 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | BUY | 0.68 | $10.59 |
| 04-04 11:43 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 04-04 11:42 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 04-04 11:39 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.95 | $199.50 |
| 04-04 11:15 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.361 | $4.28 |
| 04-04 11:14 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.361 | $18.12 |