0x69651E53dA53897c34aB44Cd68e37269CDb8Ef08-1762103589650
0x69651e53da53897c34ab44cd68e37269cdb8ef08
- Realised P&L
- $436.41
- Volume
- $37.7k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $3.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $3.06 | −$6.93 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$217.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$567.54at 0.090US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$270.61at 0.050Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$12.77at 0.583Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
- +$-23.44at 0.180U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-28 13:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $30.00 |
| 03-21 01:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.629999988 | $9.73 |
| 03-09 02:41 | Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0048957275 | $10.00 |
| 02-28 14:05 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.32 | $320.60 |
| 02-28 13:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.049905479 | $50.00 |
| 02-27 02:22 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999986 | $56.13 |
| 02-27 02:22 | US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.0369999983 | $20.00 |
| 02-27 02:22 | US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $10.00 |
| 02-18 19:24 | US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.0279999995 | $50.00 |
| 02-18 19:24 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | SELL | 0.1331196 | $66.56 |
| 02-12 17:35 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $90.00 |
| 02-09 22:45 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $50.00 |
| 01-07 21:35 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | BUY | 0.011 | $108.76 |
| 01-07 21:23 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | BUY | 0.011 | $5.50 |
| 01-07 20:15 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | BUY | 0.0122073896 | $103.00 |