0x695944D2DFe3a8FD2487f63B95D4d16974241659-1770304776960
0x695944d2dfe3a8fd2487f63b95d4d16974241659
- Realised P&L
- $46.58
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $0.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on October 10? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.007 | $0.18 | −$12.56 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$12.79 |
| Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5 · Under | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.50 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.50 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on October 5? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.51 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 25 – May 29? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.28at 0.500Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of May 11 2026?
- +$19.50at 0.890Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
- +$16.50at 0.500Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5
- +$13.27at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on October 5?
- +$12.69at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on October 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 15:23 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 4°C or below on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.35 |
| 08-31 15:33 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or below on September 1? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.73 |
| 07-06 08:50 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on July 7? | BUY | 0.985 | $5.90 |
| 07-05 02:51 | Spread: Mexico (-3.5) | BUY | 0.991 | $8.65 |
| 06-24 01:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? | BUY | 0.97 | $11.64 |
| 06-20 02:03 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 22? | BUY | 0.9700606061 | $19.21 |
| 06-11 01:21 | Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 06-02 01:19 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on June 3? | BUY | 0.98203 | $13.75 |
| 05-29 01:08 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $11.13 |
| 05-25 00:39 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of May 25 – May 29? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.61 |
| 05-19 10:53 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $328 Week of May 18 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $7.60 |
| 05-15 01:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $12.09 |
| 05-08 00:48 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 8? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.43 |
| 04-20 11:00 | Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.92 | $26.55 |
| 02-16 05:30 | Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.952 | $1.0k |