msullivan
0x69585fc22608bb609f08e5d9354c38ccb92c944b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.96
- Volume
- $11.8k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $7.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 10-13%? · No | 0.670 | 0.998 | $7.98 | +$2.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.69at 0.553Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on September 9?
- +$23.73at 0.584Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$19.82at 0.547Will Dplus Challengers win LCK CL 2026?
- +$1.26at 0.710Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?
- +$0.20at 0.964Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 01:14 | Will Dplus Challengers win LCK CL 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999913 | $23.65 |
| 01-31 14:02 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999197 | $5.55 |
| 01-31 13:59 | Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $12.57 |
| 01-30 14:16 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $25.33 |
| 01-30 13:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999795 | $20.56 |
| 01-30 12:08 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $35.26 |
| 12-30 11:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999778 | $7.82 |
| 12-29 19:29 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.96 |
| 12-29 19:20 | Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.85 |
| 12-29 18:48 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989003272 | $45.80 |
| 12-29 18:38 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.85 |
| 10-31 15:52 | Will Solana dip to $150 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.27 |
| 10-30 17:59 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $23.71 |
| 09-29 17:14 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.93 |
| 09-29 13:39 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.60 |