Meursault14
0x69381d3802c506ea22d782f22c511b5bb20d7185
- Realised P&L
- $-568.47
- Volume
- $14.5k
- Markets traded
- 305
- Open portfolio
- $24.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded305
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.86at 0.798Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$15.38at 0.880Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?
- +$15.24at 0.487Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election?
- +$13.91at 0.554Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$11.32at 0.493Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 21:52 | Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1809541029 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 13:54 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 20:54 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5699999059 | $2.00 |
| 07-01 19:12 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999913 | $3.00 |
| 07-01 10:42 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $8.41 |
| 07-01 10:41 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3279998321 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 12:55 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0489999908 | $5.00 |
| 05-22 21:08 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 12:04 | Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | BUY | 0.055999983 | $3.00 |
| 05-18 12:03 | Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | BUY | 0.2699999637 | $3.50 |
| 05-16 21:14 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999462 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 09:34 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999489 | $3.00 |
| 05-13 09:34 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0608387496 | $2.00 |
| 05-12 08:57 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.871 | $20.49 |
| 05-12 08:52 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999787 | $20.00 |