0x6934f5e4ed791e7559c9c899526dbd8fcba321b5
0x6934f5e4ed791e7559c9c899526dbd8fcba321b5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.60
- Volume
- $184.62
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $6.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.326 | 0.644 | $1.98 | +$0.98 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.510 | 1.000 | $1.96 | +$0.96 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.450 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.670 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.204 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.24at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
- +$3.13at 0.400Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E37?
- +$1.41at 0.422Spread: Beijing Guoan (-1.5)
- +$1.15at 0.472Rio Ave FC vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
- +$0.86at 0.542San Marino vs. Albania: O/U 3.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 11:15 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:14 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2249999719 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:13 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3259999641 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 10:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 02:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:40 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:05 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:46 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:10 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:36 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:44 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:04 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:56 | Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:52 | Will El Salvador win on 2026-10-05? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 16:52 | Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |