Erasyl
0x69165d1ae30831e6fd97c017b995e8e9654eb44b
- Realised P&L
- $-901.12
- Volume
- $149.9k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $71.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$288.49at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?
- +$162.65at 0.343Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26?
- +$113.53at 0.054Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
- +$51.05at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
- +$40.70at 0.710Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 15:58 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.4969904467 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:57 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.6899999425 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:56 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.6499999458 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:56 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.6299999867 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:55 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5767955632 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:54 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:54 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5499999786 | $9.00 |
| 10-14 15:53 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5599999851 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:53 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.5901638925 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:52 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:51 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.6799999547 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 10-14 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.16 |
| 10-14 15:20 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.68 |