belmondoluck
0x690fe0b6d670777f0f6a2802b7c43dcce127218d
- Realised P&L
- $-61.14
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $73.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.68at 0.449Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$15.06at 0.570Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$13.96at 0.790Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$4.48at 0.690Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$3.20at 0.610Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-08 02:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 20:52 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.5909999787 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 20:49 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 20:47 | Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.00 |
| 06-01 20:46 | Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 AL Central title? | BUY | 0.0648148028 | $5.00 |
| 06-01 20:45 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.3799999863 | $15.00 |
| 06-01 20:44 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3299999812 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 19:32 | Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.3540982937 | $3.00 |
| 05-30 19:29 | World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | BUY | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 05-30 19:26 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.56 |
| 05-30 19:24 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.999 | $22.43 |
| 05-30 02:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 02:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 02:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 05-30 02:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |