moonstarstar
0x68dc541ceec58b8277cc2b6b0b70926117b3a9c8
- Realised P&L
- $117.50
- Volume
- $94.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.966 | $779.04 | +$85.48 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $661.50 | +$311.50 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.585 | $160.88 | +$23.38 |
| Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.910 | $91.00 | +$16.00 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.741 | $74.05 | −$6.95 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.645 | $45.68 | −$0.35 |
| Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.949 | $34.53 | +$1.04 |
| Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.991 | $32.70 | +$1.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.64at 0.292Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
- +$30.50at 0.500Spurs vs. Timberwolves
- +$14.97at 0.264Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
- +$9.67at 0.052Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?
- +$8.00at 0.410US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 02:38 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.351 | $347.49 |
| 09-04 02:38 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.64 | $640.00 |
| 09-04 02:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.967 | $187.15 |
| 09-04 02:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $115.90 |
| 08-25 08:36 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.352 | $348.48 |
| 08-25 08:36 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.65 | $650.00 |
| 08-25 08:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $49.00 |
| 08-25 08:35 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $137.50 |
| 08-02 07:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.7145454545 | $157.20 |
| 07-31 14:03 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $22.27 |
| 07-31 14:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $83.03 |
| 07-31 14:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.4862338462 | $221.24 |
| 07-31 13:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 07-31 13:09 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | SELL | 0.56 | $112.00 |
| 07-31 09:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $108.58 |