0x68cA164913E33e17b8F4fb9b7Aac008702549d92-1774478131392
0x68ca164913e33e17b8f4fb9b7aac008702549d92
- Realised P&L
- $4.54
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $18.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.210 | $10.05 | +$0.96 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.185 | $5.78 | −$4.22 |
| Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.049 | $1.52 | −$1.61 |
| Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.011 | $1.07 | −$8.93 |
| Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.73at 0.220Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.76at 0.432Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$0.24at 0.202Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-0.32at 0.059Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
- +$-1.65at 0.182Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 22:12 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $47.11 |
| 07-11 05:39 | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 05:38 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2119999847 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.21 | $6.37 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | SELL | 0.049350206 | $1.68 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.1509458948 | $7.98 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.50 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.1635460993 | $7.38 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $7.14 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Celonis IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.1536908517 | $5.36 |
| 04-09 17:13 | Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.0070991158 | $0.88 |
| 04-07 19:34 | Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | BUY | 0.0588528416 | $2.00 |
| 04-02 23:55 | Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.097708288 | $10.00 |
| 03-31 20:19 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999841 | $9.09 |
| 03-31 19:19 | Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |