0x68c5ecd07c17ca7fcd4f11b79e40a87aced54a87
- Realised P&L
- $-6.02
- Volume
- $419.99
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $58.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.966 | $37.67 | +$18.17 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.925 | $12.03 | +$1.36 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.085 | $3.40 | −$4.33 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $1.50 | −$2.30 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.228 | 0.128 | $1.41 | −$1.10 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.034 | $1.36 | −$12.49 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.105 | $0.53 | −$0.57 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $0.52 | −$1.00 |
| Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.12at 0.500Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?
- +$7.94at 0.500Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.49at 0.486Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.60at 0.780Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.34at 0.220Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 09:50 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.21 |
| 07-10 02:02 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.206 | $1.24 |
| 06-26 19:01 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $10.66 |
| 04-26 20:39 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 04-26 20:38 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.52 |
| 04-26 20:38 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $7.80 |
| 04-26 20:38 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 04-26 20:38 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.486 | $2.92 |
| 04-22 17:20 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.974 | $8.77 |
| 04-22 17:19 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.254 | $3.81 |
| 04-22 17:19 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.746 | $5.22 |
| 04-11 10:28 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.35 |
| 04-11 10:28 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $5.52 |
| 04-11 10:28 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $10.20 |
| 04-11 10:28 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.05 |