0x688597e88da8dd45f1bf81120a697c073ec7af17
- Realised P&L
- $-2.42
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $5.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.065 | $2.12 | −$0.16 |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.930 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.005 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.007 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.01at 0.989Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?
- +$-0.03at 0.363Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
- +$-1.46at 0.013Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 09:03 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $0.22 |
| 08-03 08:10 | Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.0065064984 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 06:26 | Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 06:25 | Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 19:22 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.03 |
| 08-02 12:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.13 |
| 08-02 12:59 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.00 |
| 08-02 02:38 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999474 | $1.17 |
| 08-02 02:38 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999451 | $1.11 |
| 08-01 22:56 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.011 | $2.91 |
| 08-01 21:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.0094750492 | $2.31 |
| 08-01 20:28 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $0.14 |
| 08-01 20:00 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.09 |
| 08-01 19:58 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.22 |
| 08-01 19:56 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $0.02 |