0x688597e88da8dd45f1bf81120a697c073ec7af17
- Realised P&L
- $-4.24
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $2.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.970 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.003 | $0.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.055 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $0.38 | −$0.53 |
| Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.003 | $0.18 | −$0.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.32at 0.075Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.999Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?
- +$-0.06at 0.367Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
- +$-0.43at 0.160Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.62at 0.002Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 18:04 | Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 08-22 15:13 | Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 08-21 23:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | SELL | 0.022 | $0.05 |
| 08-21 15:32 | Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 08-21 11:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | SELL | 0.028 | $0.42 |
| 08-21 11:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | SELL | 0.027 | $0.01 |
| 08-21 08:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 07:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.81 |
| 08-20 20:35 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998909 | $1.10 |
| 08-20 17:20 | Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.02 |
| 08-20 16:42 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.85 |
| 08-20 15:37 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.27 |
| 08-20 12:45 | Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.06 |
| 08-20 12:44 | Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.25 |
| 08-20 02:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |