0x688453d26ff9778c28b185dfc59298eb1a3fa325
0x688453d26ff9778c28b185dfc59298eb1a3fa325
- Realised P&L
- $-18.74
- Volume
- $7.5k
- Markets traded
- 334
- Open portfolio
- $3.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded334
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.835 | $1.89 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.019 | $0.79 | −$1.16 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.150 | $0.53 | −$1.35 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) · Switzerland | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks · San Francisco Giants | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies · Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners · Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics · Athletics | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 · Over | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles · Seattle Mariners | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.99at 0.040KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions
- +$25.85at 0.072Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?
- +$15.31at 0.205Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Pol Martin Tiffon
- +$10.96at 0.270Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14?
- +$10.42at 0.279Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 11:59 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on October 9? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.50 |
| 10-09 02:41 | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $1.95 |
| 10-09 02:35 | Sharks vs. Blues | SELL | 0.52 | $3.66 |
| 10-09 02:35 | Will T1 win Worlds 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999471 | $1.95 |
| 10-09 02:34 | Sharks vs. Blues | BUY | 0.5399998671 | $1.95 |
| 10-09 02:34 | Sharks vs. Blues | BUY | 0.5699999386 | $1.95 |
| 10-08 21:23 | LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs | BUY | 0.3699999488 | $1.95 |
| 10-08 21:23 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $1.95 |
| 10-08 08:40 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9929996074 | $1.95 |
| 10-08 02:13 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | SELL | 0.69 | $2.64 |
| 08-28 18:45 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.8599999427 | $1.50 |
| 08-28 15:05 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.74 |
| 08-27 11:56 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | BUY | 0.899999861 | $2.59 |
| 08-27 05:58 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 27? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.50 |
| 08-26 20:34 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $2.25 |