Livvie
0x68823ff027f1e96b65a3befaee86d6a507a289af
- Realised P&L
- $961.28
- Volume
- $157.0k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.958 | 0.958 | $861.75 | −$0.45 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.980 | $217.45 | +$0.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$126.00at 0.965US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$124.29at 0.948MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$108.75at 0.971Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$57.84at 0.962Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?
- +$50.44at 0.987Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 09:37 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.977 | $61.17 |
| 08-20 20:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 08-19 17:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20? | BUY | 0.994 | $653.74 |
| 08-19 17:21 | Trump out as President by August 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $1.9k |
| 08-15 14:03 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.9k |
| 07-14 23:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.8k |
| 07-07 15:14 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9939999647 | $4.00 |
| 07-07 15:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 07-07 15:14 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.8599999828 | $3.00 |
| 07-07 15:13 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.991 | $3.8k |
| 07-04 16:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 5? | BUY | 0.997 | $3.8k |
| 06-13 12:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 06-13 12:51 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL | 0.991 | $172.45 |
| 06-10 02:22 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.6k |
| 05-20 16:31 | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.2k |