0x6852c3F6A9884ca6b74B03eF6AE50a8400818f9b-1762269308442
0x6852c3f6a9884ca6b74b03ef6ae50a8400818f9b
- Realised P&L
- $-4.04
- Volume
- $347.30
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $26.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%? · Yes | 0.538 | 0.995 | $25.90 | +$11.90 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.007 | $0.71 | −$9.29 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.53at 0.930Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.730Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$-1.00at 0.150Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
- +$-1.00at 0.740GPT ads by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 20:14 | Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%? | BUY | 0.6499999594 | $4.00 |
| 10-29 20:11 | Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%? | BUY | 0.5030733003 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 06:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 22:57 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 03-24 13:03 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999963 | $100.00 |
| 03-10 21:20 | Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.729999958 | $4.00 |
| 12-27 12:24 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? | BUY | 0.099009901 | $10.00 |
| 12-27 12:22 | GPT ads by March 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 12-27 12:13 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |