despacito2024
0x684d4c641c42da041fd39238a9b87f3ebb757271
- Realised P&L
- $20.7k
- Volume
- $766.6k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $11.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No | 0.821 | 0.970 | $5.8k | +$893.02 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.895 | $5.6k | +$281.05 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.427 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.75 |
| Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.0k |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Spain? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.80 |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) · Feyenoord Rotterdam | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) · Spain | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.75 |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.8kat 0.592Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.0kat 0.205Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$7.2kat 0.629Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?
- +$5.3kat 0.475England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$4.0kat 0.602Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 12:46 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.38 | $0.06 |
| 09-08 12:47 | Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) | BUY | 0.42 | $2.0k |
| 09-08 12:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.4k |
| 09-08 12:37 | Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) | BUY | 0.42 | $168.00 |
| 08-20 17:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.72 | $10.0k |
| 07-19 15:03 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.59 | $5.9k |
| 07-19 15:03 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4275 | $42.75 |
| 07-19 01:19 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.4125 | $2.0k |
| 07-18 20:35 | Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4149999999 | $2.0k |
| 07-18 19:16 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England? | BUY | 0.06 | $15.00 |
| 07-18 19:16 | Exact Score: France 2 - 2 England? | BUY | 0.08 | $15.00 |
| 07-18 19:15 | France vs. England: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.4499999962 | $30.00 |
| 07-16 09:49 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.58 | $5.8k |
| 07-16 09:48 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.0k |
| 07-16 09:05 | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | BUY | 0.85 | $141.63 |