You can bet on that
0x6849bd25053a32c21fe5424aeb374f53323058c8
- Realised P&L
- $-121.31
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $101.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$120.35at 0.571Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$117.46at 0.630CZ sentenced to prison?
- +$64.48at 0.616Will BTC hit $55,000 in February?
- +$61.21at 0.290Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$55.94at 0.750Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 11:04 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 07-22 11:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999988 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999974 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:23 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.0202420955 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.07144286 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.0981399765 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET | BUY | 0.075648049 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 11:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET | BUY | 0.1025361825 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 10:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2899999936 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 10:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET | BUY | 0.7599999976 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 10:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $15.05 |
| 07-22 10:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22? | BUY | 0.13 | $14.04 |
| 07-22 10:23 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.516 | $15.48 |
| 07-22 10:22 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 07-22 10:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $16.49 |