0x6829efd7a2489a978d0ae43a6493287d18c8ec4c
- Realised P&L
- $36.24
- Volume
- $570.27
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $123.35
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutrl FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.600 | 0.815 | $123.35 | +$32.54 |
| Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.64at 0.443OpenAI IPO before 2027?
- +$-0.68at 0.689Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 11:56 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $67.03 |
| 06-25 11:56 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $5.82 |
| 06-24 19:38 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.48 | $23.55 |
| 06-24 19:38 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.48 | $23.92 |
| 06-15 14:28 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999985 | $71.72 |
| 06-15 14:15 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.4335079925 | $42.87 |
| 06-15 07:41 | Neutrl FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $90.81 |
| 06-13 14:42 | Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.04 |