sikaba
0x6790790e4fc8168ffcb16c8215bbcd77beab07cf
- Realised P&L
- $-419.59
- Volume
- $26.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,333
- Open portfolio
- $6.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,333
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.615 | $4.34 | −$0.60 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.085 | $1.27 | −$0.97 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.877 | $1.05 | +$0.45 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.122 | $0.15 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.21at 0.486Bitcoin Up or Down on August 25?
- +$46.40at 0.048Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
- +$29.90at 0.402Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
- +$24.56at 0.550Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?
- +$24.18at 0.285Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:22 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $4.83 |
| 10-29 07:25 | Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.55 | $4.64 |
| 10-28 07:28 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $4.83 |
| 10-28 07:28 | Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.58 | $4.89 |
| 10-26 00:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.03 |
| 10-25 23:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.055 | $1.57 |
| 10-20 21:48 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05? | SELL | 0.56 | $0.65 |
| 10-20 16:31 | Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05? | SELL | 0.56 | $2.15 |
| 10-19 04:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.17 |
| 10-19 04:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.17 |
| 10-18 16:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19? | BUY | 0.53 | $4.82 |
| 10-18 16:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? | SELL | 0.999 | $34.07 |
| 10-18 05:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? | BUY | 0.28 | $4.70 |
| 10-18 05:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18? | BUY | 0.26 | $4.50 |
| 10-18 05:24 | Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | SELL | 0.942 | $6.87 |