ChonchoVilla
0x6785405533b87db3524126511ab7456036a022e8
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $139.7k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $3.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.001 | $2.25 | −$46.11 |
| Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $1.42 | −$19.80 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.22 |
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$287.29 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.00 |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.42 |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.385Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
- +$422.76at 0.340Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$311.75at 0.391Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
- +$115.86at 0.335Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$66.55at 0.511Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-06 20:41 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.3 | $54.60 |
| 04-03 21:41 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 04-03 19:05 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.123 | $22.14 |
| 04-03 14:39 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0806236559 | $7.50 |
| 04-03 14:35 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0282326782 | $13.01 |
| 04-03 14:34 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.015 | $2.23 |
| 04-03 14:24 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0148890852 | $37.25 |
| 04-03 14:23 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | SELL | 0.0333466532 | $83.03 |
| 04-03 13:29 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $5.80 |
| 04-03 13:29 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0185912495 | $0.94 |
| 04-03 13:27 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.037 | $5.06 |
| 04-03 13:26 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.051 | $1.30 |
| 04-03 07:07 | Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0295427312 | $27.47 |
| 04-02 16:42 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | SELL | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 04-02 16:40 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.35 |