0x6747e4adbf393d987f3d280da6b33c1e413c10a4
- Realised P&L
- $-5.87
- Volume
- $326.00
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $54.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.912 | $29.20 | +$13.20 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.827 | 0.925 | $10.18 | +$1.07 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.935 | $7.48 | +$1.16 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.087 | $3.85 | −$18.16 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.085 | $3.15 | −$4.99 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.246 | 0.128 | $0.64 | −$0.59 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.075 | $0.45 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.78at 0.500Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.700Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.33at 0.930Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.32at 0.941Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.928Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 19:41 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $8.14 |
| 06-05 06:48 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 04-25 05:53 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.80 |
| 04-25 05:53 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.26 |
| 04-25 05:53 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 04-23 04:13 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.928 | $5.57 |
| 04-23 04:13 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.44 |
| 04-23 04:13 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $6.32 |
| 04-23 04:13 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.246 | $1.23 |
| 04-19 19:02 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.501 | $4.51 |
| 04-10 05:57 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 04-10 05:57 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.10 |
| 04-10 05:57 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.20 |
| 04-10 05:57 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | BUY | 0.941 | $9.41 |
| 03-26 08:02 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.92 |