0x67174CA0008F160A572DF3Fe4567C383ebF70FF9-1772622842420
0x67174ca0008f160a572df3fe4567c383ebf70ff9
- Realised P&L
- $3.17
- Volume
- $441.17
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $35.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.870 | 0.865 | $9.94 | −$0.06 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.375 | $8.99 | −$1.01 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.750 | 0.979 | $6.52 | +$1.52 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.962 | $5.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.790 | 0.725 | $4.59 | −$0.41 |
| Monaco vs. Paris Basketball · Monaco | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? · No | 0.795 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.20at 0.700Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
- +$6.65at 0.330Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon?
- +$3.45at 0.696Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$2.91at 0.729Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$2.07at 0.879Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 09:14 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $5.50 |
| 07-07 12:26 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | SELL | 0.982 | $1.39 |
| 06-19 20:34 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 20:32 | Monaco vs. Paris Basketball | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 05-10 15:59 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8699999678 | $10.00 |
| 05-10 15:59 | Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7899999826 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 15:59 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9399999662 | $5.00 |
| 05-10 15:57 | Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 04-27 07:37 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 04-27 07:36 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699998695 | $4.94 |
| 04-27 07:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9259999922 | $4.96 |
| 04-09 05:49 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.49 |
| 04-09 05:48 | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | BUY | 0.8970000014 | $5.00 |
| 04-09 05:48 | Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | SELL | 0.997 | $11.08 |
| 04-07 06:02 | Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.00 |