Tmagic23
0x67041592a7806567d16d5b8c3d3d885d974eeb81
- Realised P&L
- $-678.99
- Volume
- $229.9k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $614.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.013 | $319.16 | −$146.08 |
| Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.155 | $155.00 | −$35.00 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.070 | $140.00 | −$60.00 |
| Pistons vs. Knicks · Pistons | 0.258 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| 76ers vs. Knicks · Knicks | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$126.00 |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$247.01at 0.387Will England win on 2026-07-05?
- +$230.79at 0.479Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$227.39at 0.513Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5
- +$221.82at 0.392Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?
- +$196.00at 0.510Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 01:44 | Pistons vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.1899999998 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 00:04 | Pistons vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.4 | $50.00 |
| 10-19 13:39 | Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | BUY | 0.001 | $20.00 |
| 10-17 21:19 | Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.19 | $190.00 |
| 10-17 21:15 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $90.08 |
| 10-17 17:05 | 76ers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 10-04 19:11 | Will Texas Tech Red Raiders win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.004 | $9.54 |
| 10-04 19:09 | Will Texas A&M Aggies win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.004 | $39.41 |
| 10-04 19:05 | Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.004 | $27.39 |
| 10-04 19:03 | Will Oklahoma Sooners win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | SELL | 0.004 | $40.00 |
| 09-14 17:04 | Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.012 | $4.95 |
| 09-14 17:03 | Will Texas A&M Aggies win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.007 | $2.97 |
| 09-14 17:03 | Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.004 | $4.68 |
| 09-14 17:03 | Will Texas Tech Red Raiders win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 09-14 17:02 | Will Oklahoma Sooners win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.004 | $20.26 |