affen
0x670207a99eab046e5b4ab56bc13f1c804c680051
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $322.3k
- Markets traded
- 249
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded249
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.922 | $5.2k | +$1.1k |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.187 | 0.849 | $479.40 | +$373.75 |
| Legends Cricket League: Southern Super Stars vs India Tigers · Southern Super Stars | 0.170 | 0.495 | $343.53 | +$225.55 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.260 | 0.200 | $91.60 | −$27.48 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.151 | $85.60 | −$343.78 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.085 | $23.20 | −$77.81 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.075 | $6.30 | −$6.30 |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.570 | 0.700 | $0.70 | +$0.13 |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.140Will Movistar KOI qualify to MSI 2026?
- +$690.64at 0.252Will the number of US flights delayed on April 6 be between 6,000 and 6,500?
- +$657.99at 0.245Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$461.22at 0.171Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
- +$361.12at 0.630Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 11:30 | Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.19 | $106.40 |
| 04-23 08:13 | Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | BUY | 0.899 | $598.73 |
| 04-21 10:19 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.256 | $6.40 |
| 04-21 03:29 | Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.73 | $337.99 |
| 04-21 03:06 | Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $953.31 |
| 04-21 02:54 | Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-08? | SELL | 0.59 | $468.46 |
| 04-13 16:19 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | SELL | 0.23 | $231.38 |
| 04-13 16:13 | Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $352.00 |
| 04-13 16:12 | Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $341.60 |
| 04-13 16:08 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | SELL | 0.76 | $113.24 |
| 04-13 16:07 | Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026 | SELL | 0.76 | $731.88 |
| 04-13 11:49 | Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.89 | $509.08 |
| 04-13 11:10 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | BUY | 0.33 | $331.98 |
| 04-13 10:52 | Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $719.61 |
| 04-13 10:16 | Will "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Song at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? | SELL | 0.27 | $157.14 |