Spoder0
0x66ff081fd6a4ad80b080ed675bfcd9c7f1542ccd
- Realised P&L
- $52.03
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $18.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.635 | $17.64 | +$12.64 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.655 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.002 | $0.02 | −$1.98 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET · Up | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 12PM ET · Down | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.10 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET · Down | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.59at 0.074Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2PM ET
- +$48.97at 0.021Cavaliers vs. Knicks
- +$15.04at 0.159Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?
- +$12.38at 0.286Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$9.99at 0.107Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 23:40 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:37 | Will Variational launch a token by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 08-20 19:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 19:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 19:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET | BUY | 0.06 | $3.00 |
| 08-16 05:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999857 | $2.00 |
| 08-16 05:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999726 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 16:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 12PM ET | BUY | 0.1099999685 | $3.00 |
| 06-19 18:21 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.117 | $2.02 |
| 06-19 18:20 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.073 | $2.03 |
| 06-19 18:20 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.136 | $1.75 |
| 06-19 18:20 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.128 | $1.92 |
| 06-19 18:19 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.016 | $1.78 |
| 06-19 18:19 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.066 | $1.52 |
| 06-19 18:14 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.058 | $2.11 |