Thorntonshaw
0x66f056608af119f9d54f4577b9951c74cd14ed53
- Realised P&L
- $-5.0k
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $25.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-45.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.835 | $8.69 | −$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.825 | $8.58 | −$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.815 | $8.27 | −$0.05 |
| Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 · Under | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.0k |
| Clippers vs. Rockets · Rockets | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) · Zheng | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) · Heat | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.54at 0.437Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$5.28at 0.520Spread: Magic (-15.5)
- +$4.20at 0.706Canadiens vs. Hurricanes
- +$3.75at 0.730Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 30?
- +$0.84at 0.960Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 07:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.85 |
| 09-15 07:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999842 | $8.32 |
| 09-15 07:00 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999962 | $8.63 |
| 07-17 13:52 | Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $20.00 |
| 06-09 13:11 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 08:39 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 30? | BUY | 0.7199999856 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 08:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? | BUY | 0.9579999989 | $20.00 |
| 05-29 08:37 | Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 05-29 08:36 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 04-09 17:17 | Spread: Raptors (-3.5) | BUY | 0.49 | $19.00 |
| 03-26 15:27 | Spread: Magic (-15.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $5.72 |
| 03-10 14:23 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.89 |
| 03-10 14:22 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9899998099 | $5.00 |
| 03-10 14:22 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? | BUY | 0.9789999953 | $4.00 |
| 03-10 14:22 | Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.00 |