0x66A3422417e619c28Fa62317B87d7A9857D76832-1772789078869
0x66a3422417e619c28fa62317b87d7a9857d76832
- Realised P&L
- $-103.46
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $56.33
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.024 | $31.32 | −$128.59 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.032 | $25.02 | −$74.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.80at 0.670Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
- +$62.31at 0.508Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$24.59at 0.689Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$21.64at 0.673Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
- +$8.55at 0.860Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 10:46 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999994 | $159.91 |
| 04-10 10:45 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.1259040615 | $100.00 |
| 04-07 23:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | SELL | 0.91 | $260.85 |
| 04-07 11:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | BUY | 0.6699999996 | $189.49 |
| 03-23 11:33 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | SELL | 0.1860022799 | $52.21 |
| 03-23 11:32 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $142.42 |
| 03-20 14:55 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6899999996 | $178.68 |
| 03-20 14:52 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | BUY | 0.3562357615 | $100.00 |
| 03-20 14:28 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | SELL | 0.73 | $278.66 |
| 03-12 16:33 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | BUY | 0.6733197206 | $257.02 |
| 03-12 16:32 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2490348873 | $127.99 |
| 03-12 16:31 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2510289923 | $129.01 |
| 03-11 04:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2539999995 | $261.08 |
| 03-10 23:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.7609986221 | $261.08 |
| 03-09 06:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.6893154142 | $236.49 |