selenalawson
0x668a61c1bb29ab85200babe92960a498b48859e9
- Realised P&L
- $-36.26
- Volume
- $23.8k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $0.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 21? · Yes | 0.557 | 0.004 | $0.18 | −$28.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 20? · No | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.78at 0.390Ethereum above $3,400 on December 27?
- +$16.96at 0.400Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$1.21at 0.248Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator?
- +$0.23at 0.993Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
- +$0.22at 0.989Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:12 | Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.27 |
| 01-30 16:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.57 |
| 01-30 12:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.90 |
| 01-30 12:33 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $41.81 |
| 12-30 09:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.67 |
| 12-30 00:27 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.57 |
| 12-29 20:06 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $48.01 |
| 10-30 23:29 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.45 |
| 10-30 21:36 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.73 |
| 09-29 14:39 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $11.62 |
| 09-29 04:32 | Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.19 |
| 09-29 02:25 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999898 | $19.91 |
| 09-28 23:53 | Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999457 | $14.77 |
| 08-31 22:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.34 |
| 08-31 19:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? | BUY | 0.9989999817 | $16.68 |