0x665b5d46cb35dcee63d76e3aee412875d5d032b1
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.050 | $1000.00 | +$180.14 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.165 | $330.00 | −$970.00 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.017 | $165.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.875 | $135.68 | +$28.69 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.002 | $60.00 | −$259.98 |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.003 | $50.00 | −$150.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.732 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.731Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$1.1kat 0.812US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.422Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$996.16at 0.260Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?
- +$740.00at 0.260US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 10:32 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.6862614722 | $2.7k |
| 08-12 11:16 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.6899999993 | $104.99 |
| 08-12 11:11 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 06-25 13:31 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.042 | $86.73 |
| 06-25 13:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $539.30 |
| 06-25 13:30 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $160.00 |
| 06-25 13:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.8430274051 | $3.4k |
| 06-25 13:26 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $160.00 |
| 06-16 11:19 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $48.75 |
| 06-14 01:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.732 | $1.5k |
| 06-12 05:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.81 | $2.4k |
| 05-30 01:56 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $420.00 |
| 05-27 14:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.82 | $484.85 |
| 05-14 14:48 | Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? | BUY | 0.73 | $5.84 |
| 05-08 12:03 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8106477179 | $196.79 |