chance67777
0x66040d35ce7236a9944e20b8d71e48aa62a46beb
- Realised P&L
- $322.18
- Volume
- $23.3k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $622.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.939 | 0.955 | $332.34 | +$5.74 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.964 | 0.969 | $108.52 | +$0.56 |
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.968 | 0.973 | $48.65 | +$0.25 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.964 | 0.969 | $48.45 | +$0.25 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.665 | $33.25 | −$8.25 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? · No | 0.910 | 0.790 | $31.60 | −$4.80 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $270 in November? · No | 0.930 | 0.960 | $20.16 | +$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.00at 0.450Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 13?
- +$67.20at 0.520Ripple above $2.35 on February 14?
- +$22.47at 0.775Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$21.37at 0.450Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$17.56at 0.893Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 07:39 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $107.96 |
| 10-27 07:32 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $270 in November? | BUY | 0.93 | $19.53 |
| 10-27 07:31 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $39.92 |
| 10-27 07:30 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $280 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 10-27 07:10 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in October? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |
| 10-27 07:06 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $188.00 |
| 10-27 07:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October? | BUY | 0.994 | $19.88 |
| 10-27 03:56 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.30 |
| 10-12 06:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $93.10 |
| 10-12 06:55 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $36.40 |
| 10-10 10:02 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $48.20 |
| 10-10 09:57 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.99 | $13.72 |
| 10-10 09:56 | Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.968 | $48.40 |
| 10-10 09:43 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $41.50 |
| 09-22 09:12 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $96.52 |