0x65fed3029f1c2cff11be6fb6c2ac56c8b0cc8966
0x65fed3029f1c2cff11be6fb6c2ac56c8b0cc8966
- Realised P&L
- $9.09
- Volume
- $512.24
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $1.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.680 | 0.695 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.450 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.070 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 21:12 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:12 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:40 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.4439998526 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:14 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:14 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:20 | Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.4069999101 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 19:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 11:15 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 02:03 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 01:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 02:52 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 18:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 00:59 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |