0x65bbc6178e6efc443322b12804e8b262f515e76f
0x65bbc6178e6efc443322b12804e8b262f515e76f
- Realised P&L
- $17.54
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $342.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.560 | $84.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 650,000 and 700,000? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.242 | $56.57 | +$21.57 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.723 | 0.797 | $56.26 | +$5.26 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? · No | 0.460 | 0.455 | $41.54 | −$0.46 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana be between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.410 | $37.27 | +$7.27 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.949 | $21.62 | +$12.22 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.360 | $17.56 | −$2.44 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-06 House election by 15%-20%? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.231 | $15.40 | −$4.60 |
| Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms? · No | 0.286 | 0.095 | $11.82 | −$23.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.00at 0.305Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
- +$11.17at 0.469Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?
- +$8.42at 0.570Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?
- +$7.35at 0.278No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?
- +$3.07at 0.798Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 02:23 | Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2? | SELL | 0.626376211 | $111.85 |
| 10-16 16:20 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.7229999906 | $51.00 |
| 10-16 15:43 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana be between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000? | BUY | 0.3299999997 | $30.00 |
| 10-16 15:42 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 650,000 and 700,000? | BUY | 0.1497215175 | $35.00 |
| 10-16 15:40 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-06 House election by 15%-20%? | BUY | 0.2999999985 | $20.00 |
| 10-16 14:49 | Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2? | BUY | 0.5599999987 | $100.00 |
| 10-16 14:38 | Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4121939447 | $9.39 |
| 10-16 13:34 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | SELL | 0.63 | $171.22 |
| 10-15 23:45 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $15.25 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.40 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.4 | $14.34 |
| 10-15 23:44 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | SELL | 0.3872246304 | $34.84 |
| 10-15 21:28 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | SELL | 0.84 | $57.67 |
| 10-15 17:01 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | SELL | 0.82 | $0.20 |
| 10-15 17:01 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | SELL | 0.82 | $0.07 |