0x655ca7d215744ab70b6d38b85a9ea62dd6e2467e
0x655ca7d215744ab70b6d38b85a9ea62dd6e2467e
- Realised P&L
- $-2.54
- Volume
- $360.16
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $5.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? · No | 0.640 | 0.980 | $1.53 | +$0.53 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · No | 0.630 | 0.864 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.535 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.470 | 0.400 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.210 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.83at 0.349Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Will Warsh say "Payment System" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 17:52 | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 09:20 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 21:18 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 13:14 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 05:13 | Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 20:53 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 10:46 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:21 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 14:01 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7869998513 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 05:58 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 13:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:35 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:53 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:52 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |