KaVlK52
0x654b8eb9d555179c2a0d49c59240009e7e18da0a
- Realised P&L
- $37.63
- Volume
- $327.08
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $45.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.545 | $13.63 | −$0.88 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.548 | 0.525 | $12.81 | −$0.57 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.645 | $9.68 | +$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.615 | $9.22 | −$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$22.78 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.04 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.50at 0.560Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 2?
- +$8.40at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 30?
- +$8.22at 0.452Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 28?
- +$5.82at 0.612Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 1?
- +$4.28at 0.572Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 20:49 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.58 | $14.50 |
| 10-02 20:48 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.64 | $9.60 |
| 10-02 20:46 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.62 | $9.30 |
| 10-02 20:44 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 10-02 20:44 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.38 |
| 10-01 20:27 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.36 | $8.64 |
| 10-01 13:12 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.55 | $28.60 |
| 10-01 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.54 | $16.16 |
| 10-01 11:56 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.57 | $22.80 |
| 09-30 13:46 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 09-30 13:21 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.6 | $9.00 |
| 09-29 09:51 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.29 | $3.48 |
| 09-29 09:49 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 09-29 09:34 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.57203 | $5.72 |
| 09-27 21:56 | Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.44 | $6.60 |