firstpo
0x6538e9576e873df90b2ef166792ca2b703bc5f9e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $62.9k
- Markets traded
- 2,896
- Open portfolio
- $758.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,896
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.71at 0.375Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
- +$156.82at 0.599Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner
- +$151.79at 0.492Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner
- +$135.17at 0.386Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
- +$127.88at 0.664Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 18:16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9399999839 | $42.14 |
| 11-02 18:16 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9399999988 | $31.22 |
| 11-02 18:12 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.96 | $31.22 |
| 11-02 17:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 17:38 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998702 | $3.98 |
| 11-02 16:21 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $5.96 |
| 11-02 16:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 11-02 15:06 | Dota 2: potn9ki vs HellNight- (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group C | BUY | 0.7199999985 | $18.60 |
| 11-02 14:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET | BUY | 0.5599999686 | $2.85 |
| 11-02 14:19 | Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.4299999987 | $13.55 |
| 11-02 14:16 | Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.439999991 | $15.63 |
| 11-02 14:16 | Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.4399999813 | $9.39 |
| 11-02 13:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.6699999823 | $3.40 |
| 11-02 13:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 11-02 13:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5399999396 | $3.40 |