0x651d38909f36d8e48f81fb1f5ba4bba022c105dd
0x651d38909f36d8e48f81fb1f5ba4bba022c105dd
- Realised P&L
- $-85.61
- Volume
- $533.08
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $21.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Arizona? · Yes | 0.350 | 1.000 | $6.55 | +$4.26 |
| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.385 | $5.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.535 | $4.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.540 | $4.63 | +$1.63 |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) · Texans | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.61 |
| Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev · Daniil Medvedev | 0.594 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.13at 0.739Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on day 2?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?
- +$1.95at 0.512Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?
- +$0.87at 0.924Will MrBeast's next video get at least 150 million views on week 1?
- +$0.46at 0.877US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:14 | Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 18:07 | Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Arizona? | SELL | 0.32 | $2.47 |
| 10-14 16:05 | Will Trump say "Great Falls" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | SELL | 0.6 | $2.68 |
| 10-14 14:51 | Will Trump say "Great Falls" during his Midterm Rally in Montana? | BUY | 0.6699999911 | $3.00 |
| 10-14 10:09 | Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m? | BUY | 0.3773230649 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 09:45 | Will Trump say "Hormuz" during his Midterm Rally in Arizona? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 04:11 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 4? | BUY | 0.9399999908 | $4.08 |
| 10-13 17:29 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 14:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $2.92 |
| 10-13 14:44 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | SELL | 0.77 | $3.16 |
| 10-13 14:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $4.52 |
| 10-13 14:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.74 | $2.96 |
| 10-13 14:43 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.33 |
| 10-13 11:43 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.1799999964 | $3.00 |
| 10-13 10:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.00 |