0x64FA9EEB24d0E4E76bc7bA3eAE358063e2Dae986-1772400677951
0x64fa9eeb24d0e4e76bc7ba3eae358063e2dae986
- Realised P&L
- $235.62
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $51.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.350 | $50.05 | +$0.00 |
| Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.280 | $1.40 | −$0.05 |
| Will MrBeast say "Sport" during his next YouTube video? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.90 |
| Will Bernie say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Maine? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during events in Rockland County? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next YouTube video? · No | 0.358 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$104.68 |
| Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$206.31at 0.798Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by April 30?
- +$108.21at 0.984Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by March 31?
- +$72.93at 0.774Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?
- +$37.11at 0.452Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?
- +$23.65at 0.837Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 00:06 | Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? | SELL | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 09-29 00:00 | Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 09-28 22:54 | Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 09-27 13:19 | Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.35 | $50.05 |
| 09-06 22:01 | Will Lacy or Marlon die to a pillager? | BUY | 0.993 | $18.87 |
| 09-06 21:53 | Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.18 |
| 09-06 20:21 | Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? | BUY | 0.2315789474 | $8.80 |
| 09-02 17:41 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | SELL | 0.45 | $1.04 |
| 09-02 17:40 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 17:38 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | SELL | 0.04 | $0.09 |
| 09-02 17:35 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 17:33 | Dogecoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 16:01 | Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.59 | $17.70 |
| 07-25 16:01 | Will MrBeast say "Sport" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.110952381 | $69.90 |
| 07-25 15:14 | Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next YouTube video? | BUY | 0.4 | $16.00 |