0x64e69ebaf70fde585c8d0978d2368b95a5bd3537
0x64e69ebaf70fde585c8d0978d2368b95a5bd3537
- Realised P&L
- $15.07
- Volume
- $218.14
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $8.59
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.605 | $1.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.715 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.665 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.480 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? · No | 0.730 | 0.760 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.555 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.2B? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.325 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.165 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.20at 0.319Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of September 28 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $115 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.349Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 15:02 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:56 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:56 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:27 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:49 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.2B? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:50 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.2B? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:43 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:46 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 01:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 17:32 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:31 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:31 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $775 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:26 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:21 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:48 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |