shjaha
0x64de9e24a4191363ea4c402a803cd2b24afbdcf0
- Realised P&L
- $-11.6k
- Volume
- $407.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.145 | $1.2k | −$4.2k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.065 | $200.73 | −$509.55 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.055 | $69.26 | −$270.74 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$194.97at 0.938Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7?
- +$111.07at 0.860US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$29.35at 0.964Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
- +$10.35at 0.233Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$10.33at 0.200Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 20:05 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |
| 05-19 18:17 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999995 | $340.00 |
| 04-29 19:27 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $345.00 |
| 04-26 08:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.2299999998 | $710.28 |
| 04-24 11:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | SELL | 0.7 | $106.54 |
| 04-24 11:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.3823503154 | $91.11 |
| 04-24 11:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.64 | $94.82 |
| 04-24 11:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $9.29 |
| 04-24 11:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $0.86 |
| 04-24 10:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $8.68 |
| 04-24 10:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | SELL | 0.73 | $15.66 |
| 04-24 10:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $4.44 |
| 04-24 10:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3899999701 | $5.47 |
| 04-23 12:07 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9643193011 | $793.33 |
| 04-21 11:35 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $682.27 |