JohnLai
0x649eb156f46f35f014ee940da9e0ceaf08fb02c9
- Realised P&L
- $-794.19
- Volume
- $85.3k
- Markets traded
- 1,285
- Open portfolio
- $440.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,285
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$324.80at 0.451Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
- +$182.11at 0.651Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
- +$126.75at 0.365Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
- +$123.12at 0.883Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$117.33at 0.375Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 20:09 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | SELL | 0.966 | $50.31 |
| 09-21 02:09 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.85 | $50.00 |
| 09-19 20:17 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0575879687 | $4.19 |
| 09-19 20:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 09-19 14:09 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.26 | $31.95 |
| 09-19 02:12 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.908 | $49.99 |
| 09-18 20:14 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0857319277 | $5.69 |
| 09-18 14:18 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $12.43 |
| 09-18 02:11 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.919 | $49.99 |
| 09-17 20:10 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.54 | $35.50 |
| 09-17 14:17 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.76 | $49.99 |
| 09-17 14:16 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.3 | $13.84 |
| 09-17 02:12 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.931 | $49.99 |
| 09-16 14:12 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $18.51 |
| 09-14 20:13 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $15.29 |