Debsideb
0x649e39c7667f75b4553737ea651f6ef6cd3e018e
- Realised P&L
- $-28.43
- Volume
- $163.5k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $258.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.245 | $193.23 | +$43.23 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.015 | $48.44 | −$51.56 |
| Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $16.67 | −$83.32 |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$171.02at 0.080US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$117.37at 0.161US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$24.82at 0.024Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
- +$21.88at 0.062Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
- +$17.20at 0.050Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 11:32 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 18:51 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $100.00 |
| 05-18 18:50 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.032 | $100.00 |
| 05-18 18:50 | Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0089999999 | $100.00 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $3.33 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.50 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.0057322613 | $3.85 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.33 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $4.55 |
| 05-13 10:47 | Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.019 | $7.04 |
| 05-13 10:46 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.002004 | $5.01 |
| 05-13 10:46 | Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 10:46 | Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $9.09 |
| 05-13 10:46 | Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $10.00 |