TimothyCarr1651
0x6499ba163ae00c1bb6c2ad51f90c3ff69bc905d2
- Realised P&L
- $-279.07
- Volume
- $266.6k
- Markets traded
- 339
- Open portfolio
- $435.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded339
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$115.72at 0.130Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
- +$112.09at 0.530Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
- +$95.75at 0.5601k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
- +$93.80at 0.800Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on January 9, 2026?
- +$87.00at 0.520Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 04:25 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $5.88 |
| 02-08 20:50 | Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 02-08 20:28 | Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.962 | $16.35 |
| 02-08 19:44 | Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.41 |
| 02-08 18:55 | Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.924 | $10.16 |
| 02-08 18:54 | Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.924 | $16.63 |
| 02-08 18:53 | Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.925 | $51.80 |
| 02-08 18:52 | Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.924 | $66.53 |
| 01-11 22:26 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $553.52 |
| 01-11 19:57 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $179.30 |
| 01-11 19:51 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.52 | $48.36 |
| 01-11 19:50 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.52 | $162.24 |
| 01-11 19:48 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.53 | $86.39 |
| 01-11 19:42 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $70.56 |
| 01-11 19:41 | Will the US strike Iran next? | SELL | 0.81 | $218.70 |